Consequence Analysis

Modeling the consequences of hazardous fluids releases is an integral part of any process hazard management program.

Consequence analysis begins by identifying the potential outcomes following a hazardous fluid release.
Most hazards fall under one of the following categories.

  • flammable vapor cloud
  • toxic vapor cloud
  • jet (torch) fire
  • pool fire
  • BLEVE fireball
  • vapor cloud explosion

Each of these events can be modeled using Quest’s CANARY software package, which was designed by Quest engineers and built around a multi-component thermodynamics package. From a list of over 250 components, process streams can be accurately simulated and used in the consequence calculations.

Learn more about CANARY

We begin our consequence analysis by calculating the rate of release of the fluid and its thermodynamic state after depressurization to the atmosphere. If the release begins as liquid, we determine the amount of material that falls to the ground or becomes vapor or aerosol.  For vapor cloud hazards, we predict the dispersion of the released material in the atmosphere.  If ignition of a flammable material is assumed to occur, the release model provides information to the fire radiation models in order to determine the thermal radiation impacts. A vapor cloud explosion (VCE) model can be used to determine the impact of overpressure, should a flammable vapor cloud be ignited.

In addition to CANARY, Quest engineers draw on a number of other consequence models for specific purposes. These include the use of public-domain consequence models (e.g., ALOHA, LNGFIRE), Computational Fluid Dynamics models to solve complex problems, or custom models built to solve specific consequence analysis problems.

See our experience in consequence analysis

Specific applications include: pipeline high consequence area (HCA) analysis, Texas Railroad Commission Rule 36 radius of exposure calculations, facility siting evaluation, building siting studies per API RP 752/753, and blowdown plume modeling.

Next Section:  Risk Analysis